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| Title: INSTANT VIEW: U.S. trade gap widens less than expected |
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KEY POINTS: * The trade gap grew to $27.6 billion, from an upwardly revised estimate of $26.1 billion in February, which was the lowest since November 1999. * March was the first time the trade gap had expanded in seven months, but analysts had expected it to widen even more to $29 billion. * In a sign U.S. demand remained weak in the first quarter, U.S. imports of goods and services fell 1 percent in March to $151.2 billion, the lowest since September 2004. COMMENTS: TED AKE, HEAD OF GOVERNMENT BOND TRADING, MIZUHO SECURITIES, NEW YORK: "It's a number that not only is very backward looking but it's also highly subject to a lot of revisions. Trade has got multiple components to it in that not only it's dependent on how strong our economy is but also the strength of the world economy. So any kind of balance in there can affect that number fairly heavily. But there's no question that, with our economy slow we're going to run less of a deficit than we normally would." ZACH PANDL, ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES, NEW YORK: "The surprise here, at least for us, is that goods imports, in inflation-adjusted terms continued to decline after a very sharp drop in February. I think most forecasters were expecting the real volume of goods imports to rebound slightly, similar to some of the other spending data we saw improve in March. But you saw continued weakness, particularly in capital goods related purchases, which were down 1.7 percent, and that follows a 6 percent decline roughly in each of the prior two months. "The capital spending outlook for the U.S. is still quite gloomy, a very uncertain outlook for growth, tight credit conditions, firms just being extraordinary cautious about expanding operations and that is similar to what you are seeing in the job market." MARC PADO, U.S. MARKET STRATEGIST, CANTOR FITZGERALD & CO., SAN FRANCISCO: "It's pretty benign, a little bit better than expected, exports were down that is obviously reflecting the impact of the recession on other countries. The dollar has obviously been a little bit stronger in the last six months, a stronger dollar makes it less attractive overseas. It's not surprising to see the exports down. Imports down but not as much, that gives it a little bit of a rise in the trade deficit. Oil prices up a little bit, so OPEC deficit up a little bit, but not that much. So I don't really see anything out of line, it seemed like a really flat deficit number with just currency translation being the catalyst for the little changes from the prior month. But nothing stand out in terms of indicating a change in say, with China, if there was any big surge in orders or anything like that. But consistency, stabilization, that's not a bad thing." SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES, ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA: "The report was close enough to expectations. We are still seeing a pretty sharp downturn in both imports and exports." "The numbers are a bit dated. In the figures for March you can't see a slowing in the pace of declines. Figures for the next couple of months should show the worst part of the global economic decline is behind us." JACOB OUBINA, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, FOREX.COM, BEDMINSTER, NEW JERSEY: "While the headline number looks better than expected, the reality is exports month-on-month are down, as are imports. Overall, it suggests trade continues to decline. The euro is back above $1.37 and should hit resistance around 1.3740, but the real story behind the euro gains is that oil is pressing on $60 a barrel and the two are positively correlated." STEVE GOLDMAN, MARKET STRATEGIST, WEEDEN & CO. IN GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT: "The data was in line with expectations and lately it hasn't been a market mover. I don't think it will move prices and I continue to believe that as far as stocks go it will be a non-event. "As far as trading goes, I believe the gap will start to widen out as oil goes higher and we see some recovery." MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures hold gains BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices hold losses DOLLAR: U.S. dollar extends losses versus euro Full article |
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